The past few months have felt like a flashback to 2018. Except much faster, clearer, and less fun.
In 2018, many of us braced for a recession that never came. That quiet preparation — tightening budgets, strengthening systems, trimming nice-to-haves — became invaluable when the 2020 pandemic arrived with a bang. This time, the warning lights are brighter, the market signals are harder to read, and the policy noise is louder and faster.
What’s Happening Now
The sudden removal of senior U.S. economic officials has shaken trust in the data business leaders rely on. On-again, off-again tariffs as high as 145 percent are disrupting supply chains across manufacturing, technology, and logistics. Swings in the U.S. dollar, combined with retaliation from trading partners, are adding uncertainty in markets that once felt more stable (check out the IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2025).
Policy shocks of this kind are not background noise. In politically volatile periods, they can trigger investment freezes and supply chain delays within weeks (also worth checking out: the World Bank Global Economic Prospects, June 2025).
What I’m Hearing
- Inventory strain: Startups and small manufacturers are split between buying ahead to beat price hikes and holding back to avoid costly overstock. Prices are steadily creeping up to cover these new costs.
- Expansion on pause: Teams are delaying international launches over fears that currency shifts will erase projected gains. Expansion plans that do go forward now price in currency instability, and more leaders are avoiding taking payment in non-USD denominations.
- Spending pivots: Founders are shelving merchandise programs, sales team growth and ad campaigns in favour of slower but steadier options like SEO, automation and inbound content.
These moves reflect what economists have tracked since late 2024: an accelerating trend of rising input costs, tighter credit, and falling confidence among both consumers and business owners (I often keep an eye on the OECD Economic Outlook for these short-term trends).
Why This Spreads Beyond the U.S.
The U.S. economy does not operate in isolation. When it contracts or hesitates, the effects reach far beyond its borders.
- Canada feels it in manufacturing inputs and export demand, often before domestic indicators turn.
- Australia faces a double bind, with trade exposure to both the U.S. and China, and currency movements that can shift export profitability in a matter of days.
- The UK experiences it through shifts in investor sentiment, particularly in financial services and manufacturing order volumes.
- International nonprofits see it in reduced U.S.-based grants and donations.
For leaders outside the U.S., the lesson is to prepare for impacts that may arrive more slowly but are no less certain, and in some cases, to act before local headlines catch up.
The Real Damage
The problem is not just tariffs or currency instability. It is the erosion of trust.
When the reliability of official data is questioned, strategy shifts from deliberate to reactive. For early-stage companies, stability is already a scarce resource. Hesitation replaces innovation, and the cost of waiting quietly grows.
What Remains in Our Control
- Agility and focus: Maintain close watch on costs, strengthen supplier ties, and invest in systems that give leaders options. Model off-company dashboards are more important than ever, providing a glance-level view of everything that matters moment to moment.
- Practical over perfect: In volatility, workable solutions often beat flawless ones that arrive too late.
- Scenario planning: Map out best, middle, and worst cases. Preparing for each is an act of optimism: it assumes you will still be here to make those calls.
If you do one thing this quarter, audit your top three suppliers or partners for exposure to tariff or currency risk, and review the marketing channels you can activate quickly if conditions change. Those few hours of work now can save weeks of delay later.
I do not claim to have all the answers. I have seen enough to know that steady preparation is the best counter to disorder. The companies making those plans now will be the ones ready to move when the noise fades.
This is the current picture. The playbook comes next.
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